Peterson Sorenson
You don’t need to see a cracked riverbed to know something’s changing. Across the U.S., patterns are shifting, and water is becoming a bigger concern. Some states are set to deal with more intense and lasting drought conditions than others. In this article, you’ll find the 20 states facing the highest drought risks by 2035.
Arizona
Drought has become a way of life in Arizona. The Colorado River, which supplies 36% of the state’s water, has seen reduced flows for over two decades. By 2035, with more budget cuts looming, cities like Phoenix may face water restrictions and higher utility bills.
Arkansas
Historically water-rich, Arkansas is seeing longer dry spells that hit farmers hard. If groundwater withdrawals continue unchecked, parts of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain may face depletion in the future. Rice and soybean operations are especially vulnerable, which risks yield drops and higher input costs.
California
Between the shrinking snowpack and drying rivers, California is already in trouble. Lake Shasta and Oroville hit historic lows in 2022, and without drastic water-saving moves, parts of the state could see 10–15% water supply losses by 2035. Agriculture and ecosystems will all be impacted.
Colorado
Roughly 80% of Colorado’s water comes from mountain snow. But as winter warms and snow melts faster, reservoirs are feeling the strain. Conservation and storage efforts must improve, or the state could face a water shortfall by 2035. Farmers are already seeing the impact firsthand.
Florida
Rising sea levels aren’t the only water problem here. Florida’s underground aquifers are being overdrawn, and saltwater intrusion is creeping inland. Areas like Miami-Dade could face critical freshwater shortages if water recycling and regulation don’t ramp up dramatically.
Georgia
The Southeast may look green, but hotter summers and inconsistent rainfall are drying soils fast. Georgia’s Flint River Basin is especially stressed, with future droughts expected to affect several farmlands by 2035. Competing urban and rural needs could lead to interstate water conflicts.
Idaho
Idaho relies heavily on snowmelt for its irrigation systems. Reduced snowpacks and increasing summer heat could cause significant declines in water availability. In 2021, early runoff left farmland dry by July and pointed to what could soon be the norm.
Kansas
Beneath western Kansas lies the Ogallala Aquifer, an important but shrinking water source. Groundwater has declined by over 60 feet in certain parts. If the trend continues, vital agricultural areas could dry up by 2035 unless significant changes are made in crop selection and irrigation methods.
Montana
Warmer winters and reduced snow coverage are taking a toll. Glacier National Park has lost over 80% of its ice since 1850. Without new conservation policies, Montana could see significant streamflow reductions that affect hydroelectric power and wildlife habitats statewide.
Nebraska
Though Nebraska receives more rainfall than its High Plains neighbors, aquifer stress remains a major issue. Without a break in dry years, the state could see moderate to severe drought in 3 of every 5 years. Corn and soybean fields would feel it most.
Nevada
Lake Mead has dropped by roughly 150 feet since 2000. That’s bad news for Las Vegas, which relies on it for 90% of its water. If upstream states don’t pull back on usage, southern Nevada could be looking at emergency water conditions within a decade.
New Mexico
New Mexico’s Rio Grande is drying faster than it can replenish. Reservoirs like Elephant Butte have sat at below 20% capacity in recent years. If current trends hold, the state could lose 25% of its usable water, particularly affecting rural and tribal communities.
North Dakota
Spring rains have long supported agriculture in eastern North Dakota, but that balance is starting to slip. Warmer winters and drier summers are changing the pattern. By 2035, more drought and faster evaporation could shrink surface water supplies and disrupt grain production across the Upper Midwest.
Oklahoma
Things are drying out quickly in Oklahoma’s panhandle. The Ogallala Aquifer is important here, too, but depletion is catching up fast. Rising heat and reduced storm activity are expected to trigger more frequent droughts, with cattle ranchers and cotton growers likely feeling the effects first.
Oregon
Though not typically thought of as drought-prone, southern Oregon has been hit hard. Klamath Basin farms have seen full water shutoffs in recent summers. The state could face regular multi-year droughts if snowpacks continue thinning and aquifers remain overstressed.
South Dakota
Rain in South Dakota isn’t arriving the way it used to. Dry spells last longer, and when storms do hit, they come fast and hard. The Missouri River tributaries may see declining streamflow, which will put crops and public water sources at risk statewide.
Texas
Dry periods are part of life in Texas, though lately, they’re sticking around longer. The Texas Water Development Board predicts a notable decline in surface water by 2030. Add in expanding cities and hotter days, and the state may soon face difficult rationing choices.
Utah
Utah ranks among the driest states, and the situation is getting worse. The Great Salt Lake is down by two-thirds, and groundwater has been drawn faster than it can recharge. The state could lose almost 30% of its usable water, affecting farming and communities.
Washington
Even the Pacific Northwest isn’t safe. Snow-fed rivers like the Yakima and Columbia are showing earlier peak flows. As warming accelerates, irrigation-dependent regions may run dry by mid-summer. By 2050, central Washington could face increasing drought frequency and water allocation disputes.
Wyoming
High Plains drought is picking up speed. In some parts, annual precipitation now falls below 10 inches. Snow-fed runoff is also expected to drop. That puts the Powder and Wind River basins in a tough spot, especially for farmers and ranchers who depend on steady water access.
